Monarchs face a dunting task in attempting to defend a 14 point lead at Newport on Sunday in the second leg of the Premier National Trophy final. Monarchs have twice lost by 16 points at Newport this season. They went down 53 to 37 in the first leg of the Premier League Cup and then lost 54 to 38 in the Premier League match. Obviously Edinburgh need to produce an extra two points at least to ensure an overall win.
Monarchs overcame Newport's lead in the Cup suprisingly easily after a late surge at Armadale winning 57 to 33. In the Premier League, Monarchs had already won the Armadale match by 56 to 33 and coasted through the latter stages of the League match at Queensway Meadow. The bonus point was already secure before the final heat. Peter Carr, who had dominated the match with 14 points from five rides, declined to go out in heat 15 and Monarchs conceded a 5-1 to give the Wasps a win by a rather flattering sixteen-point margin.
John Campbell conceded that a National Trophy win would depend on the point-scoring ability of Monarchs' top four. Justin Elkins is likely to be absent and rider replacement used while Brian Turner is also likely to miss the match. Turner's absence will be a particular blow as he scored 10 points for Glasgow at Newport earlier in the season. The Newport track is not really suited to Blair Scott's style. He has scored only three points from six rides in two meetings there this year.
With Monarchs operating rider replacement, the top four should get a minimum of 19 of the 30 rides with Ross Brady getting an extra ride. That will leave up to 11 rides for the two reserves. Should Monarchs be in danger of losing the tie, this will almost certainly be reduced by tactical substitutions. A possible scenario would give 6 rides each to Carr, Grieves and Brady and 5 rides to Little. That would leave 4 rides to Blair Scott and 3 to the other reserve.
Tactically, Monarchs will probably seek to give the minimum three rides to both reserves within the first six heats. This will leave the maximum flexibility to fit in tactical substitutions if required and ensure that Monarchs put out the strongest possible pairings for the later heats.
Although Monarchs have not put in a convincing performance at Newport this season, all of the top four have done well on occasions. James Grieves was brilliant in the Cup match with 15 points from 6 rides but only produced 10 from 6 in the League match. Grieves did even better in the Premier League Pairs at Newport and would have produced a 24 point maximum but for a unbelievable exclusion when he was knocked off by Frank Smart in his first ride. Peter Carr struggled somewhat in the Cup with 9 points from 6 rides and ducked the Premier League Pairs with an ankle injury. He then retured a week later with 14 points from 5 rides. Kevin Little missed the Cup match and crashed out of the Pairs but produce a creditable 8 plus 1 from 6 rides in the League. Ross Brady had a good match in the Cup with 6 plus 1 from 4 rides including a great win in heat 14. However he failed to score in the League falling in each of his three rides.
Obviously if each of the top four is at his best then Monarchs stand an excellent chance of winning the tie and maybe even the away leg. Twelve points each from six rides for Carr and Grieves plus eight from six for Brady and seven from five for Little would do nicely! Anything the reserves pick up above the one point from heat 2 will be a bonus.
The Newport track has come in for severe criticism this year. While most gave Newport the benefit of the doubt in 1997 when they opened, patince has run out as the track has seemed to get worse rather than better over the past two years. This all came to a head during the Premier League Pairs finals when a walk-out of the riders was narrowly averted. John Campbell acknowledged that the track could be important.:
"I'm told that they have fixed the hole in the third turn. If that's true, we've got a very good chance of winning."
Peter Carr is probably the key to Monarchs success. He admits to hating the circuit and was quaoted as saying that had he known Monarchs were to play Newport in the final, he wouldn't have won heat 15 at Newcastle to take Monarchs through! Fortunately no-one told him!. Campbell commented:
"The The important thing is Peter's attitude when he gets there. I do believe Peter has a fair zest for the sport right now. If Peter rolls up and says the track is rubbish but he's going to score a maximum, then I trully believe we'll be okay."
James Grieves will be the other key rider for Monarchs with two first class displays on the Welsh track this season despite the track being at its worse.
"I'm not worried about James. He has proved his ability to get round Newport ... This is why track preparation is will be vital."
So far Monarchs remain unbeaten in knockout competitions eliminating Newcastle, twice, Newport, and Sheffield from two competitions. Newport on Sunday is by far the hardest task remaining to retain this record.